Loading...

MARKET

Market & Areas

TOKYO

The Tokyo market

The success of a property investment is determined less by the merits of an individual building than by the choice of market that precedes it.
We begin with the structural characteristics of the Tokyo market.

One of the world's largest metropolitan areas

The Tokyo metropolitan area, comprising Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, is one of the largest urban areas in the world by population, and it continues to rank among the largest in economic terms as well. This is not a passing feature of the business cycle but a structure that has been sustained over decades. Few markets anywhere offer a base of rental demand that is both this large and this stable.

A capital region that continues to draw people in

Japan as a whole faces a declining and ageing population. At the same time, however, the movement of people from the regions into the capital region for higher education and employment has continued for a long time, and even in a period of overall population decline the capital region continues to concentrate population.

The capital region, and Tokyo's 23 wards in particular, is also characterised by a high proportion of single-person households. Study, employment, job transfers and the growth in single-person households themselves all generate continuing rental demand for units designed for single occupants. This is why we build our business around secondhand units aimed at single occupants.

Continuing redevelopment

In Tokyo the renewal of the urban fabric proceeds constantly, from large-scale development in the central districts to smaller works such as the rebuilding of station plazas and station buildings. Redevelopment improves convenience in the surrounding area and affects both rental demand and asset value. When you are considering a property, we suggest you also check whether any development is under way or planned in that neighbourhood. We will advise you on this as well.

A note on market data

Transaction prices and yield levels fluctuate considerably from one period to another. Rather than figures for a particular point in time, this page focuses on the structural characteristics of the market. For recent comparable transactions, or for price and yield levels in an area you are considering, please contact us and we will prepare current materials for you.

SECONDHAND

Characteristics of the secondhand market

New-build and secondhand prices behave differently

In Japan, the price of newly built housing tends to fall significantly after handover. This is because the premium attached to being new is built into the price, and that premium is lost as soon as anyone has lived there.

A secondhand property, by contrast, has already been through that adjustment by the time you buy it. Both price and rent are relatively settled and less prone to large swings, which makes it easier to forecast income and expenditure in an investment aimed at rental income.

High transaction volume means an accessible exit

The secondhand condominium market in the capital region has a high transaction volume, with a steady level of sales concluding at all times. The fact that buyers are readily found means that you can sell when you wish to sell. In investment, the outlook for the exit (sale) matters as much as the entry (purchase).

Rents move less than prices

Rents fluctuate more gently than property prices and tend to be less sensitive to the economic cycle. The relationship is that yields fall when prices rise, and yields rise when prices correct. Please treat this as a guide when considering the timing of a purchase.

CRITERIA

Three criteria for selecting a property

As a rule, the properties we introduce to our investor clients are selected to satisfy the following three criteria.

01. In one of the three major metropolitan areas

Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka

Population and economic activity are concentrated here, so rental demand can be expected over the long term. Tokyo in particular stands out in both scale and stability, and our own portfolio centres on Tokyo.

02. Secondhand

Prices and rents tend to be stable

The premium priced into a new build has already been adjusted away, so both price and rent are comparatively settled. Transaction volume is high, which also helps secure your options at the point of sale.

03. Designed for single occupants

Studio and 1K units

In Tokyo, where the proportion of single-person households is high, demand for these units is deep and vacancy periods tend to be short. Because the price per unit is contained, you can also hold several units and spread your risk.

The case for splitting a budget across several units

With the same budget, holding one family-sized unit and holding several units for single occupants produce different risk profiles. With the former, income falls to zero when the unit is vacant; with the latter, income continues from the other units even if one is vacant. On the other hand, more units mean more management work and higher running costs. Which suits you depends on your budget and how you wish to run the investment.

MERIT

Why invest in Japanese real estate

Clear ownership, with no restriction by nationality

In Japan you can acquire freehold ownership of both land and buildings, with no time limit. The rights you acquire are made public through registration at the Legal Affairs Bureau and are protected by law.

Nor are there any restrictions based on nationality or residence status on the acquisition of Japanese real estate by foreign nationals. Even if you do not live in Japan, you can own property in your own name. This is the point our overseas investors ask us to confirm most often.

Diversification into a politically and economically stable country

Concentrating your assets in a single country and a single currency is itself a risk. Placing part of your assets in a country whose institutions and society are stable is an effective option for protecting your holdings as a whole. Holding yen-denominated assets also contributes to currency diversification.

Stable rental income over the long term

Japan applies strict standards for the durability and safety of buildings, and with proper maintenance a building can be let over a long period. Japanese lease agreements are typically renewed on a two-year term, and it is common for tenants to stay for a long time, which makes income easier to forecast.

The gap between yield and funding cost (yield gap)

Where an investment is financed with debt, the difference between the rental yield and the borrowing rate is the source of the return. The wider that difference, the higher the return on your own funds.

Neither interest rates nor yields are fixed, however. If rates rise the gap narrows, and with a floating rate your repayments may increase during the holding period. When considering a purchase, please model the figures on the terms available at that time and also review how the income and expenditure would look if rates were to rise.

Please also review the risks

Real estate investment carries the risk of vacancy, falling rents, repair costs, interest rate movements, the risk of not achieving your desired price on sale, and foreign exchange risk. If you live overseas, the movement in yen-denominated income when converted into your own currency will also affect your returns. Please weigh these points alongside the benefits.

AREA

Choosing an area

The character of Tokyo's 23 wards differs greatly from one ward to the next.
Are you prioritising stability of asset value, or yield? The area you should choose changes with your priorities.

The three central wards

Chiyoda, Chuo and Minato

The administrative and business core, home to government offices, corporate headquarters and embassies. Stability of asset value is highest here, while property prices are also high and rental yields relatively low. An area suited to asset preservation, where values are unlikely to rise or fall sharply.

Subcentres and entertainment districts

Shinjuku, Shibuya, Toshima and Bunkyo

Areas built around major terminal stations, with concentrations of offices and universities. Convenience for commuting to work and study makes rental demand for single-occupant units deep, and vacancy periods tend to be short. Bunkyo also offers the calm of an established academic district.

The Jonan area

Shinagawa, Meguro, Setagaya and Ota

Areas that are highly regarded for their residential environment and enjoy stable popularity as places to live. Shinagawa and Ota offer good access to Haneda Airport, and the sheer scale of Setagaya as a residential district means a wide range of price points and layouts is available.

The Josai and Johoku areas

Nakano, Suginami, Nerima, Itabashi and Kita

Residential districts centred on the Chuo, Seibu and Tobu railway lines. They retain access to the city centre while rent levels remain affordable, and demand from single occupants and students is stable. Because acquisition prices are lower than in the centre, yields are easier to secure here.

The Joto and shitamachi areas

Taito, Sumida, Koto, Arakawa, Adachi, Katsushika and Edogawa

Areas that retain the atmosphere of old downtown Tokyo while redevelopment advances, particularly along the waterfront. Acquisition prices are comparatively contained, which suits investment focused on yield. Because the character varies widely between wards and stations, individual assessment is especially important here.

Station and walking time come before area

Assess each property individually

Even within the same ward, both rent and vacancy rates vary considerably with the nearest station and the walking time from it. For single-occupant units, whether the property is within a ten-minute walk of a station is often the dividing line, and a judgement cannot be made on ward averages alone. We research the local rental listings for each individual property before introducing it to you.

* The descriptions on this page explain general tendencies in the market and are not a guarantee of future prices, rents or yields. The income and expenditure of an individual property vary considerably with location, building age and the state of maintenance.

Tell us what you are looking for

Once we understand your budget, your priorities (yield, or stability of asset value) and your preferred areas,
we will introduce properties that match, together with the local rental market data.

CONTACT